RealGM reports that the Lakers will look to toss a max offer sheet at Bulls guard Jimmy Butler to try and pry him away from Chicago as a restricted free agent this summer, along with several other teams.
Outside of Chicago, teams are already preparing possible maximum-salary offer sheets for Butler in free agency, including the Los Angeles Lakers as one of several expected suitors, league sources told RealGM. Even Butler's college area connection, the Milwaukee Bucks, will have cap space in July. Around the league, there's a question: How will Chicago handle the inevitable max out of a star player not named Rose?
Source: Derrick Rose Passes Critical Hurdle Against LeBron, Finding Perfect Co-Star In Jimmy Butler - RealGM Analysis.
On the surface, this seems crazy. Butler's the second best or best player on the team, depending on how Derrick Rose feels. The Bulls can match any offer in restricted free agency, and have made it clear that they plan to. He's the Most Improved Player. Is there any scenario he leaves Chicago?
Probably not, but it doesn't have to do with Chicago's commitment to him, it has to deal with the structure of restricted free agency and how it prevents guys from getting max value, and it has to do with how Chicago approaches these things.
Tough negotiating is a smart business tactic, nine out of ten times. The Bulls believe it's a good tactic 11 out of 10 times. This goes back under owner Jerry Reinsdorf all the way to the Jordan era, when Reinsdorf and then-general-manager Jerry Krause played hardball with Jordan, coach Phil Jackson, and particularly future Hall-of-Famer Scottie Pippen. The team balked and ground out an extension with coach Tom Thibodeau despite taking the team to 62 wins and the Eastern Conference Finals with a healthy Derrick Rose and the playoffs each year without him. The Rose extension was less painless, and that gives hope that maybe this won't be the root canal it typically is with Chicago, but the fact remains, the Bulls are likely to pull this out. It's hard to blame an organization for doing what it can to get the right deal.
That tenth time out of ten, though, there's reason to think maybe this is a frustratingly misguided approach. Creating an environment of goodwill is better for the club and its chemistry, and since you're going to wind up paying Butler anyway, what's the harm in just paying him the max and being done with it? Just to see if you can get away with it?
Well, maybe.
See, the Bulls have broadcast loudly, as I said earlier, that they plan on matching. When that happens, teams start to move away from making those offers, because they don't want to tie up their cap space for a guy they can't get. That gets teams to delay their offer sheets, and then all of a sudden it's mid-July and most teams are settling down in terms of free agency activity. They're starting to move away from moves and start to shut down until fall. That can peel off millions. Josh Smith was an All-Star caliber player in 2008, but was a restricted free agent. No one made an offer knowing the Hawks would match, and Atlanta got a huge discount on him for five-years, $58 million.
That could definitely happen to Butler. What changes that dynamic is what Greg Monroe did and what Eric Bledsoe threatened to do, which is sign the qualifying offer, which would make Butler an unrestricted free agent in 2016... when the media deal kicks and and the cap goes up. That's honestly Butler's best play anyway, but he has to factor in security and honestly, his minutes load. He plays an absurd amount of minutes under Tom Thibodeau. Luol Deng hasn't been the same since that stint. So it's a balancing act on both sides.
The most likely scenario is for the Bulls to re-sign Butler, and probably at the max, but they may drag it out longer than most would think necessary. Whether you think that's good negotiating business or poor asset management is up to you.
HT: PBT
PS: Why would the Lakers want to sign Butler to play next to Kobe Bryant? They play effectively the same role, and have similar styles and games. You can play Butler at three and get away with it, but it's not ideal. Are they really ready to stat looking past Bryant that urgently?
