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Tuesday, May 19, 2015

ECF Preview

ATLANTA -- The questions have been there all season long. Are the Atlanta Hawks actually a good enough team to make it to the NBA Finals? Even though they have four All-Stars from this season, they don't have stars and how can you possibly beat a team with superstar talent like the Cleveland Cavaliers have with LeBron James and Kyrie Irving? After all of the doubting and speculation on what would happen, the Hawks finally get a chance to answer that question.

The interesting part about this series is not only do they lack in star talent compared to the Cavs, but they also lack in playoff experience. Heading into the 2014-15 season, the question for the Cavs seemed to be whether or not they have enough experience next to LeBron to be able to properly help him make it to the Finals and win a championship. Now that narrative has been turned toward their opponents, as people wonder if the Hawks' "lack" of playoff experience will hurt them against Cleveland.

"Our guys are going to be fine," Al Horford said after practice on Tuesday. "We've worked really hard this season to put ourselves in this position.

"We've been in different situations and I feel like they all help us not only this series but in future years. A lot of our guys are learning from this. I know, personally, my rookie year playing Boston [in the playoffs] I feel like I grew as a player and our team grew. We learned a lot. We've been learning all season and even now in the playoffs, I feel like we're learning more as a team.”

When you go through the full list of available, healthy players, the Cavs do blow the Hawks away in playoff experience. Cleveland's players have 803 career playoff games under their belts, while the Hawks' available players only have 426. However, guys like Kendrick Perkins, Shawn Marion, and Mike Miller -- while it's quite possible the do get decent playing time and have some kind of impact -- account for 335 of those games. Reserve center Brendan Haywood accounts for another 53 playoff games.

The starting lineup from Game 6 of the Cavs-Bulls series has 228 playoff games while the Hawks' starting lineup has 277. Where is this narrative of an inexperienced Hawks team coming from?

"I think until this season is over, we're always going to have to prove something," Kent Bazemore said. "People don't give us the benefit of the doubt because we don't have the stars to get a bucket down the stretch but we're not focused on that. We're just focused on our brand of basketball, our principles, and winning games.

“We've been hearing it all year. Had the best record in the East – No. 1 seed in the East. Had some doubts last series. Had some doubts against Brooklyn. And we're here. People are going to continue to talk. That's what we've come to realize. We show up every day expecting to win, knowing we've got a chance to do it against the best.”

This is the Hawks' task in the playoffs: continue fighting for respect. Somehow they've become the inexperienced team when the Cavs were the ones supposed to worry about that inexperience all season long. This collision course has been evident all season between the two teams, and we'll finally get to see if the Hawks' belief in their full team concept can overcome the expectation of needing a star player to go to down the stretch.

Game 1 begins at Philips Arena in Atlanta on Wednesday.

Eastern Conference Finals
GameDate/SeriesLocationTimeTV
Game 1: Cleveland at AtlantaWed. May 20Philips Arena8:30 p.m.TNT
Game 2: Cleveland at AtlantaFri. May 22Philips Arena8:30 p.m.TNT
Game 3: Atlanta at ClevelandSun. May 24Quicken Loans Arena8:30 p.m.TNT
Game 4: Atlanta at ClevelandTue. May 26Quicken Loans Arena8:30 p.m.TNT
Game 5*: Cleveland at AtlantaThu. May 28Philips Arena8:30 p.m.TNT
Game 6*: Atlanta at ClevelandSat. May 30Quicken Loans Arena8:30 p.m.TNT
Game 7*: Cleveland at AtlantaMon. June 1Philips Arena8:30 p.m.TNT

Hawks have won all year. Should this series be any different? (USATSI)
Hawks have won all year. Should this series be any different? (USATSI)

TEAM DEBRIEF: ATLANTA HAWKS by James Herbert

HOW DID WE GET HERE: Few expected the No. 1-seeded Hawks to struggle as much as they did against the Brooklyn Nets in the first round. They let the Nets stay close in the first two games in Atlanta, then dropped two games at Barclays Center. It wasn't until the series-clinching Game 6 — where the Hawks went on a 23-3 run to start the third quarter — that they looked the part of a 60-win team.

The story was similar against the Washington Wizards, who believe they'd still be playing if not for John Wall's hand injury. The Wizards' smallball attack put pressure on Atlanta's usually disciplined defense, and their defense made things difficult for the Hawks' scorers — Kyle Korver shot 31.3 percent from the field and 28.6 percent from deep in six games. Like every other team in the conference finals this season, Atlanta fought back from a 2-1 deficit and advanced. All the games were extremely close, though, and the Hawks' lack of bench production was a significant problem.

BIG PICTURE: To some, Atlanta still doesn't feel like a true title contender. Despite its record, there was virtually no buzz around this team entering the playoffs. Since then, it hasn't done anything to inspire a ton of confidence.

Do you remember the Hawks' 19-game winning streak, though? Do you remember how the ball moved, how much fun they were having, how solid they were on defense? The 2,937 San Antonio Spurs comparisons were warranted, and Atlanta's lack of a traditional superstar didn't matter in the slightest.

The Hawks' results lately have been iffy, but their process remains sound. They play an offensive style that is inherently tough to gameplan for — head coach Mike Budenholzer doesn't call a lot of plays, rather relying on his intelligent playmakers to read the defense and react accordingly. They won't demand double teams, but they'll run pick-and-roll after pick-and-roll and execute in the halfcourt. On the other end, there's no towering shot-blocker on the inside, but there are smart defenders at every position. They need to clean some things up if they're going to recapture their form from earlier in the season, but they should absolutely not be overlooked.

X-FACTOR: Dennis Schröder. And that's a little scary. The second-year point guard is lightning quick and a better 3-point shooter than he's given credit for. He is also, however, prone to trying to do too much. This can get him and his team in trouble, as a couple of turnovers can totally swing the momentum in the playoffs.

Atlanta's relative lack of depth has been its biggest issue in the playoffs, and that's why Schröder is so important. He's shown in the postseason that he's capable of changing games when he comes in and pushes the pace. There's no reason he shouldn't be able to get into the paint at will if Kyrie Irving or Matthew Dellavedova is guarding him. If he's effective, it will take a lot of pressure off of the starters.

KEY STAT: 73.4 percent. That's the Hawks' defensive rebounding percentage in the regular season, 22nd in the league. They've upped that to 76.2 percent in the playoffs, and they very much need the number to stay around there or improve. The Cavaliers have a 28 percent offensive rebounding percentage in the playoffs, thanks mostly to Tristan Thompson but also to Timofey Mozgov and LeBron James. Atlanta is capable of slowing Cleveland down, but not if it gives up a lot of second-chance opportunities.

HOW THE HAWKS WIN THIS SERIES: The Hawks can get to the NBA Finals if they their offensive mojo and expose the Cavs' defense. Cleveland has looked good enough on that end of the floor against the Boston Celtics and Chicago Bulls, but this is a completely different animal. Atlanta needs to try to free up Korver, tire out Irving and involve Al Horford as much as possible.

Horford looked superstar-ish for significant stretches against the Wizards, and dominating his matchup against Mozgov — and Thompson when the Cavs go small — would tilt things in the Hawks' favor. Mozgov's been superb lately, and Cleveland doesn't have another rim protector. Horford is the kind of player who can get him in foul trouble and take him out of the game.

On the other end, DeMarre Carroll will suddenly be in the spotlight. The only Hawk who didn't make the All-Star Game, Carroll has been excellent on both ends through two rounds. Now he's going to have to be the primary defender against James, so he'll have his hands full, especially with Thabo Sefolosha sidelined.

Carroll's going to have to make James work for his points, but it's even more important that Atlanta collectively slows him down as a playmaker. James doesn't have to average 35 points a game to win the series if he's creating easy looks for everybody else. If this turns into James taking contested shots out of ISO situations while the Hawks move the ball and find open looks, Atlanta has the advantage.

Do the Hawks have an answer for LeBron James? (USATSI)
Do the Hawks have an answer for LeBron James? (USATSI)

TEAM DEBRIEF: CLEVELAND CAVALIERS by Ananth Pandian

HOW THEY GOT HERE: The Cleveland Cavaliers advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals facing little adversity from their opponents. They easily dispatched the pesky Boston Celtics in four games and their defense stymied the Chicago Bulls in six games. The Bulls could've easily been up 3-1 in the series if the ball bounced their way a few more times but after he measured and evaluated Chicago in Game 1, LeBron James just knew how to beat them.

While their opponents haven't provided much adversity, the Cavs have had plenty of internal trials throughout their playoffs.

In Game 4 against the Celtics, Cleveland lost Kevin Love for the rest of the playoffs after Kelly Olynyk yanked on his arm causing his left shoulder to be dislocated. This was Love's first taste of the playoffs and now it had quickly ended thanks to an injury. He was putting up solid numbers as well, averaging 14.3 points and 7 rebounds while shooting 42 percent from beyond the arc in 26.8 minutes per game.

Love bitterly condemned Olynyk after Game 4 and midway through the second round had still not accepted the numerous apologies the Celtics forward tried to make. After undergoing shoulder surgery, Love is expected to miss the rest of the postseason and the Cavs have found ways to cope with out his three-point shooting presence on the court.

David Blatt inserted Tristan Thompson into the starting lineup in Game 2 against the Bulls in the second round and the impending free-agent, earned himself a big payday with his response. Thompson's offensive rebounding, defense, and overall energy was crucial to Cleveland beating Chicago in six games and he seems to be the answer at the power forward spot with the absence of Love.

Cleveland didn't just lose Love in their matchup against the Celtics. J.R. Smith was suspended for two games after he knocked Boston forward Jae Crowder to the ground in Game 4. This opened the door for Iman Shumpert, who started in place of Smith in the second round. Shumpert's shooting and defense kept him in the starting line up, even after Smith's suspension ended. But having a scorer off the bench in Smith, did wonders for the Cavs against the Bulls.

The Cavs were bit by the injury bug again in the second round as Kyrie Irving rolled his ankle, tweaked his knee and is nursing a wide variety of leg maladies. He had to leave Game 6 after aggravating an injury in his left knee and he could've returned but he didn't need to because yet another player on the Cavs stepped up, Matthew Dellavedova. Irving has had a few days to rest up before their matchup with Atlanta and is healthy enough to play but the injuries he accumulated in the playoffs, may flare up again.

BIG PICTURE: At the beginning of the season, In his coming home essay James told Lee Jenkins of Sports Illustrated that he wasn't getting his hopes up about winning a championship with the Cavs.

I'm not promising a championship. I know how hard that is to deliver. We're not ready right now. No way. Of course, I want to win next year, but I'm realistic. It will be a long process, much longer than it was in 2010.

Perhaps James was just tempering expectations put on Cleveland because they are now only eight wins away from winning the NBA championship. This is a much different team that started the year, trades brought in players like Shumpert, Smith, Love and Timofey Mozgov, all who have been excellent additions. James himself started the season in a more passive role, seeing what Irving and Love could do. A two week “vacation” to get his body right seemingly did more than just heal his wounds, James came back and took charge of the Cavs both in the regular season and in the playoffs.

When the Cavs needed him to step up, he stepped up. When the Cavs needed him to lead, he led. When the Cavs needed him to hit the big shot, he made the big shot.

This is all part of LeBron's legacy. He has returned to his homeland as a basketball messiah eager to teach and lead the Cavs.

The 2015 Eastern Conference Finals is just the next chapter.

X-FACTOR: Cleveland has had a number of different players step up with big games in the playoffs but while some of those performances were only for one game, the consistent play of Tristan Thompson has been crucial to the Cavs' success in the postseason. He will have to continue doing the little but important things like getting the Cavs second chance opportunities with his offensive rebounds and use his length to frustrate Paul Millsap.

Thompson is averaging 32 minutes per game in the playoffs but is almost averaging a double-double with 8.5 points and 9.5 rebounds. He had a phenomenal series against the Bulls, the Cavs will need him to duplicate it against Atlanta.

KEY STAT: 34.7 percent. That is the percentage opponents have shot at the rim while Timofey Mozgov is there to defend it. In the playoffs, Mozgov is the best player at defending the rim according to NBA.com/stats.

Mozgov is another player the Cavs have that just does things that don't show up in the box score. The Hawks tend to bomb away from beyond the arc but Mozgov's presence should affect any interior shots Atlanta will attempt.

HOW THE CAVS WIN THIS SERIES:

Is there really any other answer?