A look at the playoff picture entering play Thursday, April 9. There are nine days until the playoffs begin.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Locks: Atlanta Hawks (No. 1 seed, Eastern Conference, home court throughout conference playoffs)
Cleveland Cavaliers (playoff berth, Central division, 2-seed, homecourt in first two rounds)
Chicago Bulls (playoff berth)
Toronto Raptors (Atlantic Division championship, top-four seed, tiebreaker advantage over non-division winners)
Washington Wizards (playoff berth, no worse than fifth)
Current matchups
(1) Atlanta Hawks vs. (8) Brooklyn Nets
(2) Cleveland Cavaliers vs. (7) Boston Celtics
(3) Toronto Raptors vs. (6) Milwaukee Bucks
(4) Chicago Bulls vs. (5) Washington Wizards
No. 1 seed: As long as the Hawks are in the conference playoffs, they'll have home-court advantage. Incredible season.
No. 2: The Cavaliers have clinched the Central Division, the 2-seed, and will have homecourt in the first two-rounds should they make it there. Amazing turnaround for the franchise, and quite the coming home for LeBron James.
Nos. 3-5: The Raptors win and the Bulls' collapse vs. the Magic resulted in Toronto pulling back into a tie with Chicago, and as division winner Toronto has tiebreaker, so guess who's back in the 3-seed? Toronto strikes back! Toronto's in the driver seat with a soft schedule. Win out and they likely play either Boston or Brooklyn in the first round. Neither is particularly appealing.
Isaiah Thomas would shred the entire Raptors' perimeter defense and the Celtics have bigs to stretch the floor. Brooklyn... well, we saw what happened last year and even without Paul Pierce, just the emotional drag would be unpleasant though you'd have to think Toronto wins either. But they've got to take care of business first, something they've struggled a lot with this season.
Chicago had a fourth quarter lead vs. a bad team and blew it. And now they're staring down the barrel of facing the team that knocked them out in the first round last year. Not ideal, even if it keeps them out of the Cavs' bracket until the ECF. They have just a one-game lead over the Wizards for homecourt in the first round. They can still win the 3-seed or fall all the way to five.
The Wizards have clinched a playoff spot and no-worse than fifth.
Remaining schedules:
Toronto: at Magic, at Heat, at Celtics, vs. Hornets
Chicago: at Heat, vs. 76ers, at Nets, vs. Hawks
Washington: at Nets, vs. Hawks, at Pacers, at Cavaliers
Relevant games Thursday: Bulls at Heat
Nos. 6-8: Milwaukee looks locked into the sixth spot. The Bucks have a two-game lead over the Nets and Celtics for sixth, and can't catch the Wizards. Their loss Wednesday was a blown opportunity; their magic number remains two for a playoff spot. They'll make it, but they're sure taking the hard way. They can clinch Friday with a win and a Pacers loss (unlikely, they play the Pistons).
The Nets lost to the Hawks Wednesday. Their magic number is down to four for a playoff spot but their lead is only a game. The Nets hold tiebreaker over Indiana, but not Miami.
Everything came up Boston on Wednesday. The Celtics won and the Nets lost to the Hawks, moving Boston into the seventh seed. Then the Cavaliers clinched the 2-seed, and after the game LeBron James indicated he may rest both games vs. the Celtics, which would make it a lot easier for the C's to get the wins, obviously. Boston has tiebreaker over Indiana but not the Heat.
Two weeks ago I thought Miami's brutal schedule to finish March would sink it. Instead, the Heat thrived then, and instead waited until they played bad teams to fall apart. Their loss to Detroit on Saturday was disastrous, knocking them from the No. 8 seed. Then on Sunday, they lost to the Pacers to knock them back to 10th in the East. But in typical Eastern Conference fashion, they somehow got a win vs. Charlotte (who's also insanely injured). They're hanging in there, but their margin of error is nil.
Indiana got the boost it needed with the return of Paul George on Sunday. Indiana's a game back of the 8th seed. The Pacers play Detroit before the schedule gets more difficult.
Charlotte's now three games back of the 8th seed. It's over.
Remaining schedules:
Bucks: at Knicks, vs. Nets, at 76ers, vs. Celtics
Boston: at Cavs, vs. Cavs, vs. Raptors, at Bucks
Brooklyn: vs. Wizards, at Bucks, vs. Bulls, vs. Magic
Indiana: at Pistons, vs. Thunder, vs. Wizards, at Grizzlies
Miami: vs. Bulls, vs. Raptors, vs. Magic, at 76ers
Relevant games Thursday: Bulls at Heat
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Locks: Warriors (playoff berth, division title, No. 1 overall seed, Western Conference)
Grizzlies (playoff berth)
Rockets (playoff berth)
Clippers (playoff berth)
Blazers (playoff berth, Northwest divsion, top-four seed)
Spurs (playoff berth)
Mavericks (playoff berth, 7th seed LOCKED)
Current matchups
(1) Golden State Warriors vs. (8) New Orleans Pelicans
(2) Memphis Grizzlies vs. (7) Dallas Mavericks
(3) Houston Rockets vs. (6) San Antonio Spurs
(4) Portland Trail Blazers vs. (5) Los Angeles Clippers
No. 1 seed: The Warriors have home court throughout the playoffs, including the Finals should they represent the West. They elected not to rest starters on a back to back in San Antonio after clinching, and the Spurs leveled them. Then they turned around and played starters again... and the Pelicans beat them. So that's not exactly the kind of momentum you want with a week left.
Nos. 2-6: OK, a bunch of stuff happened here on Wednesday.
Memphis won, beating the Pelicans and giving them nine division wins and 34 conference wins. Why is this relevant?
Because not only did it move Memphis back into the 2-spot after Houston's loss to San Antonio, but it locked tiebreaker over both Houston and San Antonio. Houston can only tie in division record and conference record with Memphis, which pushes the tiebreaker to record vs. playoff teams. Whether it's New Orleans or Oklahoma City, the Grizzlies own that tiebreaker with a 16-9 mark over Houston's 10-15 with two to go.
San Antonio can still tie in division record, but Memphis wins the conference record outright with 34 wins. That's a big advantage for Houston for the 2-seed with four games left.
Houston moves into the 3-seed and is currently matched up with the scariest damn team in the league in San Antonio, and has to play them again on Friday. Donatas Motiejunas is out for the season, and they face the Spurs and Pelicans next. Houston's been resilient, though, so don't count them out yet.
San Antonio's win pulls them back even with the Clippers with LAC still holding onto tiebreaker for the moment. The Clippers have the easiest schedule remaining, and the 2-seed is not out of reach yet. They need some help, but the schedule makes it very possible. They can't slip up, though, or they risk a potential 3-6 matchup with either Memphis or the Spurs, neither of which would be ideal.
That's the hidden part of this. Whoever falls out of the 2-3 matchup is likely getting Portland in round one, and will probably have home court to boot. They face the Warriors in the second round, but between the fire breathing dragon of the Warriors and the Death Star of the Spurs, which do you take? You take the dragon.
Portland's hanging around, they won again Wednesday, and are just two games back of the 2-seed. But they have to jump a lot of guys to get there and their tiebreaker situation is dire, except for vs. Houston.
Remaining schedules:
Grizzlies:vs. Spurs, vs. Pelicans, at Hornets, vs. Jazz
Rockets: at Jazz, at Clippers, at Warriors, vs. Pacers
Clippers: vs. Grizzlies, vs. Nuggets, at Suns
Spurs: at Rockets, vs. Suns, at Pelicans
Relevant games Thursday: Blazers at Warriors
No. 7: With the Pelicans' loss Wednesday, the Mavericks locked the 7th seed. They can't move up or down. They'll win whoever comes out of that bloodbath described above. They can start resting starters.
No. 8: New Orleans got their backsides handed to them Wednesday vs. Memphis but kept a lock on the 8th seed due to their head to head tiebreaker over OKC. Here's the remaining schedules.
OKC remaining: Kings, Pacers, Blazers, Wolves
New Orleans remaining: Suns, Rockets, Wolves, Spurs
In their final four games, the Thunder face three teams they should beat and the Blazers, who will likely be locked into the fourth seed and resting players. The Pelicans, on the other hand, face the dysfunctional Suns, the Rockets battling for the 2-seed, the Wolves, and San Antonio -- and who knows what they'll be doing.
The Pelicans likely have to find three wins out of those four games. That seems pretty tough, but then, we've counted them out before and here they are.
Relevant games Thursday: None
