With the news that Cleveland Cavaliers' forward Kevin Love will miss the entirety of the second round of the Eastern Conference Playoffs, the attention now turns to what the Cavs can expect to do against their next opponent. Unless the Milwaukee Bucks pull off the first 0-3 comeback victory in NBA history, the Chicago Bulls will likely be in the semi-finals match-up for Cleveland. The Cavs and Bulls already present several advantages and disadvantages against each other when both teams are at full strength.
How does the news about Love change the Cavs in the next round?
The Cavs struggled to get Love to perform at his typical All-Star level when he was the No. 1 scorer on the Minnesota Timberwolves. Love was accustomed to having the offense run through him, as he decided how to pick the defense apart either with his jumper, post moves, passing, or getting to the free throw line. He was good to elite at all aspects of his offensive repertoire. However, that wasn't what was needed in Cleveland.
David Blatt's design throughout the season appeared to be maximizing the abilities of LeBron James and Kyrie Irving by putting the ball in their hands and having them create with a properly spaced floor. And for the most part, it worked. In just their first season together, this core finished fourth in the NBA in offensive rating and when they had Irving, LeBron, and Love on the floor together, the offense flourished.
In over 1,400 minutes on the floor together, the Cavs' trio put up an offensive rating of 113.5 points per 100 possessions. In their most used lineup of Love, LeBron, and Irving being joined by Timofey Mozgov and J.R. Smith, the Cavs seemed to be mostly unbeatable. They put up an offensive rating of 116.1 and had a ridiculous net rating of plus-19.3 points per 100 possessions.
Despite Love's worst shooting season of his career (if we don't count the 18-game campaign when he broke his hand twice) and the second worst scoring season of his career, his presence on the floor was important. It didn't matter that he struggled to hit shots; he spaced the floor and the Cavs were able to utilize their individual talents outside of him to create great looks for everybody on the floor. Replace Love with backup Tristan Thompson and the results were devastating to the Cavs.
With Thompson instead of Love, the offense dropped to a rating of 105.7 (10.4-point difference) and their net rating plummeted to a minus-8.8 points per 100 possessions. They were 28.1 points per 100 possessions worse with Thompson taking Love's spot in that lineup. The sample size is much smaller, comparing a five-man lineup with Love that logged 481 minutes to the one with Thompson playing just 75 minutes this season. But they have that disparity in time on the court for a reason. It simply didn't work.
In looking at how the two lineups did against the Bulls this season, the Cavs scored 114.1 points per 100 possessions and had a net rating of plus-3.1. Sub Thompson into the power forward slot and the offense fell to 98.4 and the net rating dropped to minus-2.7. It's a less severe drop juxtaposed to the season totals, but they were a bad offensive team against a big frontline that hated having one of their bigs drawn away from the basket to corral Love.
The Cavs took 5.9 percent more shots in the restricted area with Love on the court this season. Irving's attempts at the restricted area increased from 14.6 percent with Love on the bench to 18.5 percent with him on. LeBron's attempts at the rim increased from 20.6 percent to 21.4 percent of the Cavs' restricted area attempts.
Between Love's absence in the second round due to the shoulder injury and J.R. Smith's two-game suspension, the Cavs will have to dig themselves out of a hole against a Bulls team that appears to be gaining steam and heading into the second round with a full bill of health. Projecting the presumed lineup of Irving, LeBron, Mozgov, Thompson, and Iman Shumpert (in for J.R. Smith) is difficult because it had so little time on the floor together.
That five-man lineup logged just 13 minutes together this season. It did well in those 13 minutes, outscoring teams by 20.0 points per 100 possessions and recording an offensive rating of 140.3, but it's such a small sample size that you don't know how much of it, if anything, is telling of how it would do against this Bulls team. It played just 1.2 minutes against the Bulls this season and never more than 2.6 minutes against any other opponent.
Much like this season with a new core and a familiar face in LeBron, there is a new uncertainty with what the Cavs will be and how successful they can go with the group on the court. This group just loses one of their most important floor-spacers of the group and it will prove to be a challenging amount of space for the Cavs to recreate with different, more limited options to replace him.
